2002-09-25 Leif Andersson Henriksbergsvägen 104 136 67 HANINGE Tel 08/777 45 33 e-post leif.andersson@haninge.mail.telia.com Hemsidor http://go.to/lean1 http://come.to/lean Cause and effect ================ You can not measure any distances on a smooth sea-surface. Even if you hold a ruler over the surface the measures you make will be meaningless as soon as you remove the ruler. There will be no distinguishable points at the end of the distance you measured. But if you disturb the surface, e g if you throw a stone at it, you will get a distinguishable point. And the disturbance will spread and cause new disturbances. You will have waves and you can measure the distance between the waves and you can count the number of waves. You have created a space of measures. Creation was a "stone" thrown in the smooth ether. The disturbance spread and created a world where we can measure distances (space) and events (time). In this world events occur at random, but not completely at random. For some reason event B might increase the possibility for event A. If the front of a car moves the probability is high that the rear will move too. Why there is such a connection between cause and effect is the greatest question of all. But obviously there is. Suppose that we want event A to occur but we can not make it happen directly. Then we might find an event B that can be the cause of A. So if we can make B happen then B will cause A. We control our world through the cause of the cause of...the cause of the effects we want. An event that has a cause is predictable. If the cause happens we can predict that the event will occur. And we can use the event as a cause of another event. Hence predictable events are useful. There are also unpredictable events. We call them noise. We can not use these events since we do not know if they will occur (this is not an absolute truth but that is another subject). When we talk about energy we talk about predictable and useful events. The concept of predictability plays an important role in our effort to control nature. It has also an important role in economics. The reason why economies based on egoism might work while economies based on altruism will not is that the predictability of egoism is higher than the predictability of altruism. In nature we can use the predictable fall of one object to raise another object. In economics we can use predictable egoism to create altruism and a working economy based on egoism can be more altruistic than a non-working economy based on altruism.